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Advanced foresight and specialized economic trend evaluations for global leaders.
Last updated: April 27, 2026
Chips, Controls, and Capital: The Semiconductor Cold War Explained
ASML in Eindhoven makes the only machines capable of printing the world's most advanced chips. There is no second source. No credible alternative in development. Every nation-state that wants technological sovereignty runs through that one Dutch company, which is itself caught between Washington's export controls and Beijing's demand. ¹ ²
TSMC in Taiwan produces the overwhelming majority of advanced semiconductors the world runs on. Automotive, AI, defence, consumer electronics, and telecoms, the supply chain for all of it converges on a 36,000 km² island. No business continuity plan written before 2020 adequately priced that risk. Most written since still don't. ³
The assumption that export controls freeze the gap in place is wrong. Huawei's return with competitive silicon using constrained tooling was a proof of concept. SMIC is extracting more from older lithography nodes than the industry thought possible. The gap is real. The trajectory matters more than the current position. ⁴ ⁵
Meanwhile, over half a trillion dollars in public and private capital is now moving into semiconductor infrastructure globally, the US CHIPS Act, the EU Chips Act, Japanese subsidies, and South Korean investment commitments. That's a reordering of global industrial geography. It creates winners and losers by sector and by region, and most of that analysis hasn't filtered through to the companies most exposed. ³ ⁶
The scenario where global tech effectively splits into two ecosystems, one aligned with US standards and controls, one not, is no longer fringe. Multinationals selling into both the US and Chinese markets are already navigating product stack decisions with geopolitical compliance implications. That tension will not ease. It will require strategic decisions that are currently being deferred. ⁶
The question isn't which bloc pulls ahead. It's whether your supply chain and product architecture are built for a decade of genuine uncertainty.
I cover geopolitical risk, technology policy and market exposure. Follow for analysis without the noise.
Sources
- ASML - Export Control Impact Statement (2024): asml.com
- CNBC - ASML 2025 Outlook and China Exposure (Oct 2024): cnbc.com
- Global Taiwan Institute - TSMC, US Industrial Policy & Export Controls (Mar 2025): globaltaiwan.org
- CNAS - The Export Control Loophole Fuelling China's Chip Production (Dec 2024): cnas.org
- AI Frontiers - How Export Controls Have and Haven't Curbed Chinese AI (2025): ai-frontiers.org
- International Center for Law & Economics - US Export Controls on AI and Semiconductors (Mar 2025): laweconcenter.org